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The Daily Lock track record

Every free Lock, graded once its games go final. Flat 1-unit stakes. No cherry-picking.

Simulated backtest — not real-money results. These figures come from the platform's built-in settlement simulator (results modeled from each pick's own probabilities), so they demonstrate the tracking system, not verified performance. Wire a real results feed to report live numbers. No edge is guaranteed; most bettors lose over time.

The record

Four honest lenses on the same picks
Posted parlay 16.7%
1–5
the ticket as published · 6 settled

Every leg must hit. The real, published result — nothing hidden.

Single bets 53.3%
8–7
each leg on its own · 15 settled

A Lock can lose the parlay yet win most legs as straight bets.

Safer lines 70%
7–3
the model's alt line · 10 settled

Its higher-confidence alt line (e.g. Over 4.5 @84%) as a single.

Safer-line parlay 33.3%
2–4
whole ticket, safer lines · 6 settled

Follow the safer line on every leg it flagged one — the full ticket.

ROI · flat 1u -18.4%
Net units -1.1u
Current streak L4
Settled Locks 6

Is the edge real?

Credibility signals, independent of luck
Model calibration
needs work
Brier 0.0933 · 187 picks · lower = sharper

Closing Line Value is the sharpest honest signal: if your price consistently beats where the market settles, the edge is real even before the results land — it matters more than any single win or loss.

Calibration curve · predicted vs actual

When the model says a pick is 60% to hit, does it actually hit ~60%? Every settled Lock leg and prop, bucketed by what we predicted vs what really happened.

Under 40% · 164
6% pred 19%
40–50% · 6
50% pred 46%
50–60% · 15
53% pred 54%
60–70% · 2
100% pred 63%
Predicted Actual hit rate The closer the tick sits to the end of the bar, the better calibrated.
Self-calibration · the model learns from its own results

15/30 settled legs so far. Once ≥30 legs settle, the model recalibrates its confidence from how its own picks actually landed — tightening when it was overconfident, trusting itself when it was accurate. Until then it holds the conservative default (λ = 0.88).

Every Lock, leg by leg

✓ won · ✗ lost · ⏳ pending

The parlay result is the whole ticket. Below it, each pick as its own single bet, plus the model's safer line where it flagged one — so you can see the wins a losing ticket still had.
⏳ 16 Locks still pending (games not final).

Oct 16, 2026 NFL · 2-leg · +109
⏳ Pending
⏳
Under 59 -210 Fanatics
⏳
Under 60.5 -240 Fanatics
Oct 12, 2026 NFL · 1-leg · -235
⏳ Pending
⏳
Under 61.5 -235 Fanatics
Oct 8, 2026 NFL · 1-leg · -220
⏳ Pending
⏳
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +14.5 -220 FanDuel ↕ balanced: Buccaneers +8.5 @69% ⏳
Oct 5, 2026 NFL · 1-leg · -118
— Pass (no bet)
⏳
New Orleans Saints -118 FanDuel ↕ balanced: Saints +4.5 @68% ⏳ ↓ safer: Saints +10.5 @82% ⏳
Oct 4, 2026 NFL · 1-leg · -275
⏳ Pending
⏳
Over 29.5 -275 Fanatics
Oct 3, 2026 NFL · 2-leg · +157
⏳ Pending
⏳
Los Angeles Chargers +13.5 -235 BetMGM ↕ balanced: Chargers +7.5 @69% ⏳
⏳
Tennessee Titans +13.5 -125 Fanatics ↕ balanced: Titans +8.5 @70% ⏳
Sep 30, 2026 MLB · 2-leg · -192
⏳ Pending
⏳
Over 4.5 -330 Fanatics
⏳
Over 4 -600 Fanatics ↕ balanced: Over 6 @73% ⏳
Sep 27, 2026 MLB · 2-leg · -190
⏳ Pending
⏳
Over 4.5 -310 Fanatics
⏳
Over 4 -650 Fanatics ↕ balanced: Over 6 @73% ⏳
Sep 20, 2026 MLB · 2-leg · +148
⏳ Pending
⏳
Over 4.5 -102 FanDuel
⏳
Over 3.5 -400 Fanatics
Sep 18, 2026 MLB · 2-leg · -162
⏳ Pending
⏳
Under 13.5 -265 BetRivers ↕ balanced: Under 11.5 @74% ⏳
⏳
Over 4 -575 Fanatics ↕ balanced: Over 6 @73% ⏳
Sep 14, 2026 MLB · 1-leg · -215
⏳ Pending
⏳
Under 13 -215 Fanatics
Sep 6, 2026 MLB · 2-leg · +210
⏳ Pending
⏳
Under 18.5 +125 Caesars
⏳
Over 3.5 -265 Fanatics
Sep 4, 2026 MLB · 2-leg · -108
⏳ Pending
⏳
Under 13.5 -220 Fanatics
⏳
Over 4.5 -310 Fanatics
Sep 3, 2026 MLB · 1-leg · -118
⏳ Pending
⏳
Over 7.5 -118 LowVig.ag ↕ balanced: Over 6.5 @70% ⏳ ↓ safer: Over 4.5 @84% ⏳
Aug 25, 2026 MLB · 2-leg · -174
⏳ Pending
⏳
Over 4 -525 Fanatics ↕ balanced: Over 6 @72% ⏳
⏳
Under 13 -310 Fanatics ↕ balanced: Under 11 @71% ⏳
Aug 18, 2026 MLB · 2-leg · -148
⏳ Pending
⏳
Under 15 -330 Fanatics
⏳
Under 13 -350 Fanatics ↕ balanced: Under 11 @70% ⏳
Aug 1, 2026 MLB · 2-leg · -125
⏳ Pending
⏳
Under 15 -300 Fanatics
⏳
Over 4.5 -284 Caesars
Jul 31, 2026 MLB · 3-leg · +700
✗ Parlay lost
✓
Under 11 +100 LowVig.ag ↓ safer: Under 13 @83% ✓
✗
Under 10.5 +105 BetUS ↓ safer: Under 13.5 @86% ✗
✗
Over 7.5 -105 Bovada ↓ safer: Over 4.5 @84% ✗
Jul 30, 2026 MLB · 3-leg · +665
✗ Parlay lost
✗
Over 7 -113 LowVig.ag ↓ safer: Over 4 @87% ✓
✗
Over 7.5 +105 BetUS ↓ safer: Over 4.5 @84% ✗
✓
Under 10 -102 LowVig.ag ↓ safer: Under 14 @88% ✓
Jul 29, 2026 MLB · 3-leg · +728
✓ Safer-line parlay won ✗ Parlay lost
✓
Under 10.5 -102 FanDuel ↓ safer: Under 13.5 @86% ✓
✗
Over 7.5 +103 LowVig.ag ↓ safer: Over 4.5 @84% ✓
✓
Over 8 +106 LowVig.ag ↓ safer: Over 4 @86% ✓
Jul 28, 2026 MLB · 3-leg · +724
✗ Parlay lost
✗
Philadelphia Phillies +100 BetOnline.ag
⏳
Over 7.5 +103 LowVig.ag
✓
Under 9.5 +103 LowVig.ag
Jul 27, 2026 MLB · 2-leg · +390
✓ Parlay won
✓
Under 10 -115 MyBookie.ag
✓
Miami Marlins +162 LowVig.ag
Jul 26, 2026 MLB · 2-leg · +390
✗ Parlay lost
✓
Over 7 -120 BetMGM
✗
New York Yankees +167 LowVig.ag

Past performance does not guarantee future results. For entertainment only.