Today's prop board
Every player prop on the slate, run through the model and ranked by PropScore โ a 0โ100 read that blends the sharp-line edge with the projected hit rate. Higher score, stronger spot.
? What am I looking at? โ the metrics in plain English
The headline rating. 50 is a coin flip; higher means the model sees a bigger edge on the over. 70+ is a strong spot.
The model's fair chance the player goes over the line โ before the book's cut. Over/Under says which way it leans.
Model probability minus what the odds imply. Positive = the price is better than the true chance. That gap is the whole game.
How often the player has actually cleared this exact line this year โ e.g. "52 of 88 games". History, not a projection; the model can disagree with it.
How the Quant (stats), Scout (context) and Sharp (market) each lean. "2/3 back" means two of three like the over.
Real hit rates on the posted over, from 172 settled props ยท 117 still pending. This is how you check the score is worth trusting.
Higher PropScore should hit more often โ that's the score earning its keep. Grades are building a real track record. Not financial advice.
| Score | Prop | Book ยท Odds | Proj | Edge | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 72 |
Junior Caminero over 0.5 home runs Home runs Tampa Bay Rays @ Cleveland Guardians ยท MLB |
+650 BetRivers | 20% Under | +6.4 pt | 2/3 back Q Sc Sh |
| 72 |
Jonathan Aranda over 0.5 home runs Home runs Tampa Bay Rays @ Cleveland Guardians ยท MLB |
+700 BetRivers | 19% Under | +6.6 pt | 2/3 back Q Sc Sh |
| 70 |
Chandler Simpson over 0.5 home runs Home runs Tampa Bay Rays @ Cleveland Guardians ยท MLB |
+4000 Caesars | 9% Under | +6.2 pt | 2/3 back Q Sc Sh |
| 70 |
Petey Halpin over 0.5 home runs Home runs Tampa Bay Rays @ Cleveland Guardians ยท MLB |
+1500 BetRivers | 12% Under | +6.2 pt | 2/3 back Q Sc Sh |
| 69 |
Nathaniel Lowe over 0.5 home runs Home runs Tampa Bay Rays @ Cleveland Guardians ยท MLB |
+950 BetRivers | 15% Under | +5.8 pt | 2/3 back Q Sc Sh |
| 69 |
Jonny Deluca over 0.5 home runs Home runs Tampa Bay Rays @ Cleveland Guardians ยท MLB |
+1400 BetRivers | 13% Under | +5.9 pt | 2/3 back Q Sc Sh |
| 68 |
Jose Ramirez over 0.5 home runs Home runs Tampa Bay Rays @ Cleveland Guardians ยท MLB |
+850 BetRivers | 16% Under | +5.6 pt | 2/3 back Q Sc Sh |
| 68 |
Travis Bazzana over 0.5 home runs Home runs Tampa Bay Rays @ Cleveland Guardians ยท MLB |
+1100 BetRivers | 14% Under | +5.5 pt | 2/3 back Q Sc Sh |
| 68 |
Steven Kwan over 0.5 home runs Home runs Tampa Bay Rays @ Cleveland Guardians ยท MLB |
+2200 BetRivers | 10% Under | +5.7 pt | 2/3 back Q Sc Sh |
| 67 |
Victor Mesa Jr. over 0.5 home runs Home runs Tampa Bay Rays @ Cleveland Guardians ยท MLB |
+800 BetRivers | 16% Under | +5.3 pt | 2/3 back Q Sc Sh |
| 67 |
Jo Adell over 0.5 home runs Home runs Tampa Bay Rays @ Cleveland Guardians ยท MLB |
+800 BetRivers | 16% Under | +5.3 pt | 2/3 back Q Sc Sh |
| 67 |
Richie Palacios over 0.5 home runs Home runs Tampa Bay Rays @ Cleveland Guardians ยท MLB |
+1200 BetRivers | 13% Under | +5.4 pt | 2/3 back Q Sc Sh |
| 66 |
Brayan Rocchio over 0.5 home runs Home runs Tampa Bay Rays @ Cleveland Guardians ยท MLB |
+1100 BetRivers | 13% Under | +5.0 pt | 2/3 back Q Sc Sh |
| 66 |
Taylor Walls over 0.5 home runs Home runs Tampa Bay Rays @ Cleveland Guardians ยท MLB |
+1500 BetRivers | 12% Under | +5.3 pt | 2/3 back Q Sc Sh |
| 66 |
Yandy Diaz over 0.5 home runs Home runs Tampa Bay Rays @ Cleveland Guardians ยท MLB |
+1000 BetRivers | 14% Under | +5.1 pt | 2/3 back Q Sc Sh |
| 66 |
Chase DeLauter over 0.5 home runs Home runs Tampa Bay Rays @ Cleveland Guardians ยท MLB |
+900 BetRivers | 15% Under | +5.0 pt | 2/3 back Q Sc Sh |
| 66 |
Patrick Bailey over 0.5 home runs Home runs Tampa Bay Rays @ Cleveland Guardians ยท MLB |
+900 BetRivers | 15% Under | +5.0 pt | 2/3 back Q Sc Sh |
| 66 |
Liam Hicks over 0.5 home runs Home runs Tampa Bay Rays @ Cleveland Guardians ยท MLB |
+1000 BetRivers | 14% Under | +5.1 pt | 2/3 back Q Sc Sh |
| 63 |
Petey Halpin over 0.5 RBIs RBIs Tampa Bay Rays @ Cleveland Guardians ยท MLB |
+349 DraftKings | 26% Under | +3.9 pt | 2/3 back Q Sc Sh |
| 63 |
Brayan Rocchio over 0.5 RBIs RBIs Tampa Bay Rays @ Cleveland Guardians ยท MLB |
+350 DraftKings | 26% Under | +3.9 pt | 2/3 back Q Sc Sh |
| 62 |
Richie Palacios over 0.5 RBIs RBIs Tampa Bay Rays @ Cleveland Guardians ยท MLB |
+340 DraftKings | 26% Under | +3.7 pt | 2/3 back Q Sc Sh |
| 61 |
Yandy Diaz over 0.5 RBIs RBIs Tampa Bay Rays @ Cleveland Guardians ยท MLB |
+272 DraftKings | 30% Under | +3.5 pt | 2/3 back Q Sc Sh |
| 60 |
Chandler Simpson over 0.5 RBIs RBIs Tampa Bay Rays @ Cleveland Guardians ยท MLB |
+299 DraftKings | 28% Under | +3.1 pt | 2/3 back Q Sc Sh |
| 60 |
Travis Bazzana over 0.5 RBIs RBIs Tampa Bay Rays @ Cleveland Guardians ยท MLB |
+310 DraftKings | 28% Under | +3.1 pt | 2/3 back Q Sc Sh |
| 60 |
Steven Kwan over 0.5 RBIs RBIs Tampa Bay Rays @ Cleveland Guardians ยท MLB |
+352 DraftKings | 25% Under | +3.3 pt | 2/3 back Q Sc Sh |
| 58 |
Taylor Walls over 0.5 RBIs RBIs Tampa Bay Rays @ Cleveland Guardians ยท MLB |
+325 BetMGM | 26% Under | +2.6 pt | 2/3 back Q Sc Sh |
| 57 |
Steven Kwan over 1.5 total bases Total bases Tampa Bay Rays @ Cleveland Guardians ยท MLB |
+175 Bovada | 38% Under | +2.1 pt | 2/3 back Q Sc Sh |
| 57 |
Chase DeLauter over 0.5 RBIs RBIs Tampa Bay Rays @ Cleveland Guardians ยท MLB |
+219 DraftKings | 34% Under | +2.2 pt | 2/3 back Q Sc Sh |
| 57 |
Patrick Bailey over 0.5 RBIs RBIs Tampa Bay Rays @ Cleveland Guardians ยท MLB |
+298 DraftKings | 27% Under | +2.4 pt | 2/3 back Q Sc Sh |
| 56 |
Jo Adell over 0.5 RBIs RBIs Tampa Bay Rays @ Cleveland Guardians ยท MLB |
+217 DraftKings | 34% Under | +2.1 pt | 2/3 back Q Sc Sh |
| 55 |
Jose Ramirez over 0.5 RBIs RBIs Tampa Bay Rays @ Cleveland Guardians ยท MLB |
+251 DraftKings | 30% Under | +1.9 pt | 2/3 back Q Sc Sh |
| 54 |
Taylor Walls over 0.5 hits Hits Tampa Bay Rays @ Cleveland Guardians ยท MLB |
+135 BetMGM | 44% Under | +1.1 pt | 2/3 back Q Sc Sh |
| 54 |
Nathaniel Lowe over 0.5 RBIs RBIs Tampa Bay Rays @ Cleveland Guardians ยท MLB |
+251 DraftKings | 30% Under | +1.7 pt | 2/3 back Q Sc Sh |
| 54 |
Jonny Deluca over 0.5 RBIs RBIs Tampa Bay Rays @ Cleveland Guardians ยท MLB |
+272 DraftKings | 29% Under | +1.6 pt | 2/3 back Q Sc Sh |
| 53 |
Jonathan Aranda over 0.5 RBIs RBIs Tampa Bay Rays @ Cleveland Guardians ยท MLB |
+227 DraftKings | 32% Under | +1.3 pt | 2/3 back Q Sc Sh |
| 53 |
Victor Mesa Jr. over 0.5 RBIs RBIs Tampa Bay Rays @ Cleveland Guardians ยท MLB |
+241 DraftKings | 31% Under | +1.2 pt | 2/3 back Q Sc Sh |
| 52 |
Liam Hicks over 0.5 RBIs RBIs Tampa Bay Rays @ Cleveland Guardians ยท MLB |
+240 DraftKings | 31% Under | +1.2 pt | 2/3 back Q Sc Sh |
| 50 |
Junior Caminero over 0.5 RBIs RBIs Tampa Bay Rays @ Cleveland Guardians ยท MLB |
+183 DraftKings | 36% Under | +0.3 pt | 0/3 back Q Sc Sh |
| 49 |
Yandy Diaz over 1.5 total bases Total bases Tampa Bay Rays @ Cleveland Guardians ยท MLB |
+144 BetOnline.ag | 41% Under | +0.0 pt | 0/3 back Q Sc Sh |
| 47 |
Chandler Simpson over 1.5 total bases Total bases Tampa Bay Rays @ Cleveland Guardians ยท MLB |
+145 BetMGM | 40% Under | -0.4 pt | 0/3 back Q Sc Sh |
| 47 |
Nick Martinez over 2.5 strikeouts Strikeouts (pitcher) Tampa Bay Rays @ Cleveland Guardians ยท MLB โ safer: Over 0.5 @ 90% |
+139 BetOnline.ag | 41% Under | -0.4 pt | 0/3 back Q Sc Sh |
| 45 |
Richie Palacios over 0.5 hits Hits Tampa Bay Rays @ Cleveland Guardians ยท MLB |
-105 BetOnline.ag | 50% Under | -1.4 pt | 0/3 back Q Sc Sh |
| 43 |
Victor Mesa Jr. over 0.5 hits Hits Tampa Bay Rays @ Cleveland Guardians ยท MLB |
-135 BetMGM | 55% Over | -2.0 pt | 0/3 back Q Sc Sh |
| 43 |
Brayan Rocchio over 0.5 hits Hits Tampa Bay Rays @ Cleveland Guardians ยท MLB |
-115 BetMGM | 52% Over | -1.7 pt | 0/3 back Q Sc Sh |
| 43 |
Taylor Walls over 0.5 total bases Total bases Tampa Bay Rays @ Cleveland Guardians ยท MLB |
+126 BetOnline.ag | 43% Under | -1.4 pt | 0/3 back Q Sc Sh |
| 42 |
Jonny Deluca over 0.5 hits Hits Tampa Bay Rays @ Cleveland Guardians ยท MLB |
-135 BetMGM | 55% Over | -2.2 pt | 0/3 back Q Sc Sh |
| 41 |
Petey Halpin over 0.5 hits Hits Tampa Bay Rays @ Cleveland Guardians ยท MLB |
-116 BetOnline.ag | 51% Over | -2.4 pt | 0/3 back Q Sc Sh |
| 38 |
Jo Adell over 0.5 hits Hits Tampa Bay Rays @ Cleveland Guardians ยท MLB |
-155 BetMGM | 58% Over | -3.2 pt | 0/3 back Q Sc Sh |
PropScore โฅ 70 = strong edge ยท 55โ69 = lean ยท below 55 = pass. Projection is the model's fair hit rate vs the book's line; edge is model minus the price. Analysts is how the three lenses โ Quant (stats), Scout (context), Sharp (market) โ lean; green backs, red fades, grey passes. Where they agree, conviction is high. Not financial advice โ most bettors lose over time.