Simulated backtest — not real-money results. These figures come from the platform's built-in
settlement simulator (results modeled from each pick's own probabilities), so they demonstrate the tracking
system, not verified performance. Wire a real results feed to report live numbers. No edge is guaranteed;
most bettors lose over time.
The record
Four honest lenses on the same picks
Posted parlay
16.7%
1–5
the ticket as published · 6 settled
Every leg must hit. The real, published result — nothing hidden.
Single bets
53.3%
8–7
each leg on its own · 15 settled
A Lock can lose the parlay yet win most legs as straight bets.
Safer lines
70%
7–3
the model's alt line · 10 settled
Its higher-confidence alt line (e.g. Over 4.5 @84%) as a single.
Safer-line parlay
33.3%
2–4
whole ticket, safer lines · 6 settled
Follow the safer line on every leg it flagged one — the full ticket.
ROI · flat 1u
-18.4%
Net units
-1.1u
Current streak
L4
Settled Locks
6
Is the edge real?
Credibility signals, independent of luck
Model calibration
needs work
Brier 0.0933 · 187 picks · lower = sharper
Closing Line Value is the sharpest honest signal: if your price consistently beats
where the market settles, the edge is real even before the results land — it matters more than any single win or loss.
Calibration curve · predicted vs actual
When the model says a pick is 60% to hit, does it actually hit ~60%? Every settled Lock leg and prop, bucketed by what we predicted vs what really happened.
Under 40% · 164
6%
pred 19%
Predicted
Actual hit rate
The closer the tick sits to the end of the bar, the better calibrated.
Self-calibration · the model learns from its own results
15/30 settled legs so far. Once ≥30 legs settle, the model recalibrates its
confidence from how its own picks actually landed — tightening when it was overconfident, trusting itself when it
was accurate. Until then it holds the conservative default (λ = 0.88).
Every Lock, leg by leg
✓ won ·
✗ lost · ⏳ pending
The parlay result is the whole ticket. Below it, each pick as its own
single bet, plus the model's safer line where it flagged one — so you can see the wins a losing ticket still had.
⏳ 3 Locks still pending (games not final).
Aug 25, 2026
MLB · 2-leg · -174
⏳ Pending
⏳
Over 4 -525 Fanatics
↕ balanced: Over 6 @72%
⏳
⏳
Under 13 -310 Fanatics
↕ balanced: Under 11 @71%
⏳
Aug 18, 2026
MLB · 2-leg · -148
⏳ Pending
⏳
Under 13 -350 Fanatics
↕ balanced: Under 11 @70%
⏳
Aug 1, 2026
MLB · 2-leg · -125
⏳ Pending
Jul 31, 2026
MLB · 3-leg · +700
✗ Parlay lost
✓
Under 11 +100 LowVig.ag
↓ safer: Under 13 @83%
✓
✗
Under 10.5 +105 BetUS
↓ safer: Under 13.5 @86%
✗
✗
Over 7.5 -105 Bovada
↓ safer: Over 4.5 @84%
✗
Jul 30, 2026
MLB · 3-leg · +665
✗ Parlay lost
✗
Over 7 -113 LowVig.ag
↓ safer: Over 4 @87%
✓
✗
Over 7.5 +105 BetUS
↓ safer: Over 4.5 @84%
✗
✓
Under 10 -102 LowVig.ag
↓ safer: Under 14 @88%
✓
Jul 29, 2026
MLB · 3-leg · +728
✓ Safer-line parlay won
✗ Parlay lost
✓
Under 10.5 -102 FanDuel
↓ safer: Under 13.5 @86%
✓
✗
Over 7.5 +103 LowVig.ag
↓ safer: Over 4.5 @84%
✓
✓
Over 8 +106 LowVig.ag
↓ safer: Over 4 @86%
✓
Jul 28, 2026
MLB · 3-leg · +724
✗ Parlay lost
✗
Philadelphia Phillies +100 BetOnline.ag
⏳
Over 7.5 +103 LowVig.ag
✓
Under 9.5 +103 LowVig.ag
Jul 27, 2026
MLB · 2-leg · +390
✓ Parlay won
✓
Under 10 -115 MyBookie.ag
✓
Miami Marlins +162 LowVig.ag
Jul 26, 2026
MLB · 2-leg · +390
✗ Parlay lost
✗
New York Yankees +167 LowVig.ag
Past performance does not guarantee future results. For entertainment only.
